Market briefing — 2026-10-05

Score v5 combines seven independent market-condition pillars instead of treating one daily move as the whole market: rates, financial conditions, the dollar, liquidity, growth/labor, inflation and the yield curve.

Fast daily/weekly conditions carry 45% of the full model; slower macro/regime conditions carry 55%. Missing data is excluded rather than treated as neutral, and the score is withheld below 80% coverage or without evidence from both horizons. This is a 1–3 month conditions/regime measure with a fast overlay, not a next-session probability.

• Rates pressure · Strong adverse · -73 · 20% weight2Y 4.83% · real 5Y 2.69% · Daily moves: 2Y +5 bp; real 5Y +4 bp. Larger yield rises are restrictive; larger falls are supportive.
• Financial conditions · Favorable · +43 · 15% weightNFCI -0.548 · 13w -0.034 · NFCI below zero is looser than historical average; tightening over 13 weeks reduces the score.
• Dollar pressure · Not scored · 10% weightInsufficient dollar history · Requires a fresh broad-dollar observation and 20-session history.
• Liquidity impulse · Slight adverse · -15 · 15% weightNet liquidity $5747bn · 4w -0.77% · MKT60 proxy = Fed total assets − Treasury General Account − ON RRP. Expansion is supportive; contraction is restrictive.
• Growth & labor · Favorable · +43 · 20% weightUS CLI 100.96 · claims 4w 200k · CLI: above 100, 3m +0.250. Claims 4w average is down 10.1% versus 13 weeks earlier.
• Inflation pressure · Slight favorable · +23 · 10% weightCore CPI 2.76% YoY · 1.97% 3m ann. · Near-target core inflation and deceleration are supportive; high/accelerating inflation is restrictive. Very low inflation is not automatically maximally positive.
• Yield curve · Favorable · +30 · 10% weight10Y − 2Y +45 bp · A more positive 10Y−2Y slope is supportive for the medium-term cycle; inversion is restrictive.

Snapshot: 2026-10-05T04:26:09.789542+00:00. Public-source inputs retain their own observation dates. The historical validation shows useful tail separation but noisy middle bands; this is not a calibrated return forecast or investment recommendation.